Could Bitcoin Be Decoupling from its Status as a Safe Haven?

Bitcoin is struggling to live up to its reputation as a safe-haven asset in 2026, as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz send oil prices sharply higher. Rather than moving independently, the crypto is tracking energy markets more closely, with a notable positive correlation of 0.68 with crude.

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, has sent shockwaves through financial markets. Analysts at Goldman Sachs revised their outlook earlier this week, expecting Brent crude to average around $110 through March and April.

Prices have already surged, with Brent crossing $113 and West Texas Intermediate rising above $101, developments that followed escalating rhetoric from Washington toward Tehran.

In past crises, such instability often strengthened the case for Bitcoin as a digital alternative to traditional safe assets. However, current data points to a shift. The growing link between Bitcoin and oil appears to be driven by inflation concerns. Elevated energy prices tend to keep inflation persistent.

In response, central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, are more likely to maintain higher interest rates. Those conditions typically reduce liquidity across global markets, which has historically weighed on Bitcoin’s performance.

Higher fuel costs impose a burden on the economy, affecting both consumers and crypto miners. If oil flows through the Strait remain restricted at low levels into April, as some forecasts suggest, the global economy could face a stagflation scenario. That combination of weak growth and persistent inflation tends to pressure speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Trading behavior reflects this reality. Bitcoin is not rallying over fears of conflict. Instead, it is reacting negatively to tightening financial conditions. Unless oil prices stabilize or the relationship between the two assets weakens, gains beyond the $70,000 mark may remain limited.

Still, there are signs of divergence beneath the surface. While smaller investors appear uncertain, larger holders continue to build positions. Wallets containing between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have been accumulating in the $60,000 to $70,000 range.

This suggests that more experienced participants may see current risks as temporary or anticipate intervention, such as policy measures designed to boost liquidity.

Institutional interest also remains intact. A recent exchange-traded fund filing by Morgan Stanley highlights continued development in the investment infrastructure surrounding Bitcoin. Even so, price movements remain tied to broader economic forces rather than long-term narratives.

For now, Bitcoin’s trajectory appears closely linked to developments in energy markets. A sustained move above $72,000 while oil prices stay elevated would signal a break from this pattern. Until that happens, the crypto is likely to move in step with broader risk trends influenced by the cost of energy.

As the relationship between BTC and the energy market continues to take shape, major crypto firms like Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA) will be taking notes and assessing what this means for the future of the leading digital asset.

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