Bitcoin (BTC) has seen little movement over the past few months. After a strong start to 2024, it has largely leveled off, trading between $56,000 and $62,000 since July. This stability contrasts sharply with the first half of the year, when the cryptocurrency jumped by 45%, largely fueled by U.S. spot ETFs.
Market watchers are now eager to see what might trigger a shift in Bitcoin’s performance. Most are paying close attention to key developments anticipated between December and early next year. Broader economic factors, such as changes in U.S. interest rates, are also seen as important. Traders are optimistic that the market may see a resurgence after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved BlackRock’s new spot BTC ETF options.
Despite BTC’s potential, its volatility continues to be a key issue. In 2020, the 90-day volatility rate was 67%; it is already 42% this year. Analysts caution that in times of market volatility, BTC may be among the first assets to be liquidated because it is still strongly linked to the crypto market as a whole. For instance, growing Middle East tensions caused Bitcoin to fall by 5% last week.
Wintermute trader Jake Ostrovskis is upbeat about these options and believes more retail investors may be drawn to them. BIT Mining’s chief economist Youwei Yang notes, however, that more regulatory permits may be required, especially from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The Chainalysis Global Adoption Index tracks crypto usage in 151 countries. According to the index, adoption rates today are higher than they were during earlier cryptocurrency booms, especially in lower-income countries. Nations with restricted access to conventional banking institutions are where the use of cryptocurrencies is expanding the fastest.
India currently holds the top spot in the rankings, followed by Nigeria. Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam also rank highly, as many people there are turning to crypto as an alternative to their currencies, which are often weakened by high inflation.
The value of Bitcoin is still high in these areas, according to Mauricio Di Bartolomeo of the cryptocurrency lending site Ledn. Many people in emerging markets choose to store their wealth in U.S. dollars due to a lack of trust in local financial institutions.
The U.S. ranks fourth worldwide in cryptocurrency adoption. South Korea and China take the 19th and 20th spots, respectively. The United States is the global leader in transaction volume, followed by India.
The next significant rise in BTC will be determined by a confluence of market trends, regulatory choices and rates of worldwide acceptance, all of which are important considerations for the crypto market.
It would also be insightful to track which emerging markets entities such as Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA) expand their operations into the space, as this could provide indicators about where else this industry holds the greatest promise of massive growth.
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