Bitcoin’s strong summer rebound appears to be losing momentum, with investor sentiment turning more cautious despite a period that has historically provided support for the crypto market.
The world’s largest crypto was trading at roughly $82,000, putting it nearly 5% lower this week. Meanwhile, the crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 56, moving into neutral territory. The indicator had reached extreme greed sometime in August.
The index ranges from zero to 100, with lower readings reflecting fear and higher levels signaling stronger risk appetite. It reached 82 on August 26, the highest level recorded this year.
Bitcoin climbed to $86,978 early last week before falling to $81,749.83 and later recovering to about $83,800. Even after that rebound, Bitcoin remained around 34% below its record high of $126,000, reached in October 2025.
The latest weakness follows a sharp recovery that began in August. Bitcoin gained 24.9% during the month, prompting several market observers to declare that the prolonged downturn had ended.
Investor demand, however, has since moderated. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $484.9 million in withdrawals last Wednesday, marking their largest daily outflow since June. Although Friday brought $21.1 million in fresh investment, Bitcoin ETFs still recorded a net monthly outflow of $386.3 million in October. Ethereum funds have faced even heavier pressure, extending their losing streak to nine consecutive sessions and losing $635 million during the month.
Broader economic concerns have also pressured cryptocurrencies. Last week, Brent crude moved above $101 per barrel as attacks involving shipping near the Strait of Hormuz increased. At the same time, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.7 percent, its highest level in over two decades.
Bitcoin, stocks, and gold all declined during that session, suggesting that wider market conditions, rather than crypto-specific concerns, were driving the selloff.
Higher oil prices can feed into inflation because crude is an important cost for transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, and other industries. Persistent inflation can limit the Fed’s ability to lower borrowing costs and may increase expectations for tighter monetary policy.
Rising Treasury yields can also make speculative investments less attractive. Bitcoin generates no income through interest payments and generally behaves like a risk asset, meaning higher yields and expectations for elevated rates can weigh on demand.
Market expectations now reflect that caution. Myriad traders see a 45% probability of Bitcoin reaching $87,500 this month, down from 55 percent on October 7. The odds of a move to $90,000 have fallen from 36 percent to 28 percent.
Meanwhile, traders assign a 56 percent chance to Bitcoin falling to $80,000, with probabilities of 33 percent for $77,500 and 20 percent for $75,000. The price trajectory of BTC will be observed closely by various traders, analysts and companies like Cantor Equity Partners Inc. (NASDAQ: CEP) over the coming weeks in order to gauge how the digital asset could close the year.
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